They say the Masters doesn’t start until the back nine on Sunday. And certain shots on certain holes have more to do with the outcome than others. Players who pull off these five shots go on to receive the green jacket, while those who fail are left to ponder what went wrong as they drive away down Magnolia Lane.

Meanwhile, there’s another shot that can decide the outcome even before the opening drive is struck on Thursday: the winning putt in Wednesday’s Par 3 Contest—no player has ever won that sideshow and the main event in the same year.

Second Shot 9th Hole
Par 4, 460 Yards
What’s needed: Perfectly judged iron from downhill lie to an elevated, severely back-to-front sloped green.
Upside: Birdie can kick-start back-nine charge.
Perils: Spinning the ball off the green or leaving it above the hole.
Hero: In both Masters wins (1984, 1995), Ben Crenshaw (left) made birdie, including tap-in in ’95.
Goat: Chasing Seve Ballesteros in 1983, Tom Watson left approach well past the hole, resulting in a rally-killing three-putt.
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Tee Shot 13th Hole
Par 5, 510 Yards
What’s needed: Well-struck, right-to-left drive around the dogleg.
Upside: Good drive can lead to leader board-jumping eagle.
Perils: Rae’s Creek left, trees right—leaving little margin for error.
Hero: In 1993, Bernhard Langer (above) found the fairway to set up eagle and pulled away from Chip Beck.
Goat: Trying to catch Tiger Woods in 2002, Ernie Els hooked his drive and made triple bogey.
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Second Shot 15th Hole
Par 5, 530 Yards
What’s needed: High-flying, soft-landing shot that holds the shallow green.
Upside: Makeable eagle putt—no bigger momentum builder late in the round.
Perils: Poor shot will find water; laying up usually results in par and, often, second-guessing.
Heroes: Gene Sarazen’s famous 4-wood double eagle in 1935; Vijay Singh (above) sealed 2000 win with a hooked 4-iron around trees.
Goats: Seve Ballesteros dunked approach in ’86 to fall out of lead; Beck laid up and made par in ’93, when birdie or eagle would have put heat on Langer.
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Tee Shot 16th Hole
Par 3, 170 Yards
What’s needed: Well-judged iron 20 feet right of traditional Sunday hole location, letting the slope feed ball toward the hole.
Upside: Hole-in-one is possible at this arena-like location, the loudest on the course.
Perils: Water left, three-putt territory too far right.
Heroes: Nicklaus nearly holed tee shot in ’86; Woods redeemed pulled 8-iron with a stunning off-the-slope chip-in birdie last year.
Goat: After watching Nicklaus make 40-foot birdie putt, Tom Weiskopf came up short for bogey, ultimately losing by one in 1975.
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Tee Shot, 18th Hole
Par 4, 465 Yards
What’s needed: Mix of power and accuracy on this narrow, uphill driving hole.
Upside: Only sure way to make birdie is from fairway.
Perils: Easy to find bunkers left and woods right on this visually intimidating chute off the tee.
Hero: Phil Mickelson (below) split fairway in 2004, setting up dramatic birdie and first major championship.
Goat: Len Mattiace found trees and made bogey to fall into 2003 playoff, which he lost to Mike Weir.